Received this email from my friends on their bicycle trip in Chile:
The Concerned Truck driver
We were 45 miles into a long travel day. The shoulder of the road had disappeared a while back and the trucks got bigger as the road seemed to narrow. Funny the way the constant hills got steeper as we were trying to find the correct road to lead us to our next reservation.
One truck passed way to close for comfort, probably for his comfort as well. He pulled over to the side of the road and waited for us. He reached into the cab and pulled out a crusty lime green dayglo vest and told us we need to wear these and gave it to Bruce. This man was genuinely concerned, not angry. We have since replaced the vest with new ones for us and passed his forward.
We finally found our Cabana at the end of 4 miles of rock and dirt road. It was an older structure on the edge of a peaceful bay next to a bird sanctuary. We arrived with the tide out and it looked like mud flats, By the next morning it was covered in shallow water with white swans that had black necks, seagulls the size of turkeys, crane type of bird and various small ones. The cabin had a much needed wood stove and a goose down bed to cover us.
We then moved forward again, to Ancud on Chiloe the large island at the top of Patagonia. From there we went to see the penguins. The babies are now 3 month old and out on the water with their parents. Some of the parents are molting and those who have finished are shinny and clean in their new tuxedos.
The town was having a Custombrisias, like a small county fair where there were prize animals, local crafts, local beer and wine, and the church and school groups were cooking in boths. These strong German descended mamas were making amazing batches of empanadas and fathers were roasting Cerdo Asado (pig on a stick roasted over wood and hand turned). Everyone seemed to be having a wonderful time. The smells were amazing and the home baked desserts and ice creams tempting. The local band was on the stage and the German songs were sung in Spanish. We had a blast watching the families and especially the interaction between the old people.
Now in Quinchi a small coastal town, a sleepy village with a large salmon farming industry. The bay is beautiful and was very peaceful tonight while we had dinner on the top deck overlooking the beach. This like all beach towns is perched on a cliff, the approach was continually rolling hills and a steep climb, thinking you are going to be into town, and then a few more just like the last climb before you actually get that amazing view of the bay.
Tenaun was the next stop along the coast. This small town was 9,000 people and we stayed in a guest house. We were cold when we walked into the large bright kitchen, lunch was cooking on the wood stove and the greeting was warm and welcoming. We ate with the family for our 3 meals there. It is always interesting to be in a home. The TV in the kitchen was a 50 inch and none in the living room.
We expected Dalecuhue to also be a quiet town…. We were so wrong! This busy summer tourist town was like Cape May New Jersey 25 years ag. A board walk, more trinket and artisan booths than inhabitants. Salmon ceviche made in front of you. The lady was sharpening her knife on the cement curb, she did wipe it off on her apron. From there you could take the ferry to a close small island a bit more rural and we found the small village famous for their oysters.
Castro was next the largest city on Chiloe. From here we took a bus north again for an 11 hour ride to Villarrica in the lake district.
The Volcano looms above the lake always in a light haze. Sometimes you turn a corner and there it is at the end of the street, a constant present. They also have a board walk along the lake shore and a black sand beach.( artificial beach where they brought the sand in) The water is warmer in the lake than the ocean. There were wave with white caps when we arrived from the wind and now it is warm and wonderful. The trees here are so large, the grass green and the sky a silky blue. The evening stays light until 9:30 pm That is when the streets are the most crowded with tourists, families are wandering around until midnight with small children that have napped during the heat of the day.
We have seen many bird, only 1 dead snake and a PuliPuli a small deerish rodent about 30 inches tall that moves like a deer and has a face like a cat. At the ocean on an early morning walk we saw a dolphin playing in the surf
Propagation de K7RA
9 March, 2019After no sunspots over the entire month of February, sunspot group 2734 appeared on March 5. So far the new sunspot numbers are 14, 17, and 14 on March 5-7.
I believe this was the longest consecutive period (33 days) with no sunspots on this declining side of Cycle 24. The polarity of the new sunspot group identifies it as being from Cycle 24, not the upcoming Cycle 25.
Frank Donovan, W3LPL sent a link from the Royal Observatory in Belgium showing brief sunspot appearances on February 13 and 21:
http://www.sidc.be/products/ri/
But numbers from NOAA do not show these:
ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/quar_DSD.txt
It is interesting to note that we are currently seeing the lowest sunspot activity since August 2008 during the last solar cycle minimum, between Cycles 23 and 24.
Frank also sent this link, concerning spotless days:
http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless
And a newsletter:
http://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2019/STCEnews20190307.pdf
Average daily sunspot numbers for the week increased from 0 to 4.4, compared to the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux was unchanged at 70.6
Average daily planetary A index rose from 4.9 to 12.6, and average mid-latitude A index increased from 4 to 9.7. These geomagnetic indicators were higher due to effects of a solar wind stream on February 28 and March 1.
Predicted solar flux is 71 on March 8-12, and 70 on March 13 through April 21.
Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10 and 8 on March 8-10, 5 on March 11-13, 10 on March 14-15, 5 on March 16-25, then 12, 30, 28, 14, 8 and 10 on March 26-31, then 8, 5, 10, 15, 12, 12 and 8 on April 1-7, then 5 on April 8-15, 10 on April 16, and 5 on April 17-21.
In reference to the predicted planetary A index, here is the geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 8 until April 6, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on March 14-15, 23-24
Quiet to unsettled on March 9, 17-18, 22, 25 Quiet to active on March 8, 10-13, 19-21, 31, April 1-2 Unsettled to active on March 16, 26, 29-30 Active to disturbed on March 27-28
"Solar wind will intensify on March (8-9,) 13-14, (15,) 21-22, 25-28, April 1, (2, 5)
"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."
Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW sent this video and report:
https://youtu.be/eq_r4st7Sy8
"Dear Tad,
"We have been enjoying an unusual increase in activity over the past week. First, the Sun launched a solar storm that grazed Earth. Nice to see our solar minimum Sun can still launch storms every now and again! This solar storm enhanced a relatively weak period of fast solar wind and caused aurora to drop down to mid-latitudes, lasting for nearly two days.
We haven't seen a storm that engaging since 2018!
"As if that wasn't enough fun, two new hot spots have emerged in Earth view alongside a third bright region that was already visible. Three active regions on the Earth-facing Sun? We haven't seen that since 2017!
"Additionally, the biggest and brightest of these hotspots has now grown into a 'rogue' sunspot. This means it clearly shows an influence from the coming Solar Cycle 25! Although we cannot officially designate this region, numbered 2734, as a sunspot from the new cycle, its magnetic signature is very peculiar. Its magnetic poles sit one on top of the other instead of side by side. This is unusual and point to the region being a bit confused as to which cycle it belongs. I will be sure to report on it in more detail during my Solar Storm forecast that I'll finish late this week.
"As for the current forecast, expect solar flux to remain in the low to mid 70s due to the new active regions. This will give radio propagation a nice boost on Earth's day side. Also, as the solar storm continues to wane, GPS reception should continue to improve on Earth's night side and at high latitudes. However, satellite operators and users should be aware of an increase in anomalies over the next few days due to the enhanced near-Earth radiation environment right now. This is especially true for those satellites in geosynchronous orbits (GEO) like Direct TV and SIRIUS-XM Radio. So, if your satellite radio glitches while you're listening to your favorite song, you'll know why.
"Cheers, Tamitha."
In last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP009 - https://bit.ly/2EM3b8K - I expressed my confusion over the numbers in FT8 reports. Thanks to N6KW, N5UWY and others for clearing this up. Here is N6KW's missive:
"The FT8 QSO, left to right, is Zulu time, signal/noise ratio in dB, time deviation in seconds, audio frequency in the passband.
"So JA4FKX's signal was 13 dB below the noise at the time of copy."
N5UWY wrote:
"That's a cut/paste from WSJT-X (K1JT's software package for all the modes he and his colleagues have developed). Fields are 'UTC, signal strength in dB relative to the noise level in a 2500-Hz bandwidth, delta in seconds between received station's clock and UTC, the number of Hertz above the dial frequency, then the message from the other station' Japan (or 'JA') is tacked on after the message by the software to indicate the DXCC entity by name or prefix.
"'343' here means that JA4FKX was transmitting on 10136.343 kHz.
Further, his clock was 0.3 s off UTC (according to the receiving station's clock which could be off itself!) and the JA's signal was 13 dB DOWN from the noise level that the software was seeing at the receiver.
"I am totally an expert now on FT8. I started using it on January 28 and by February 27 or so, I had WAS on 30 m and FT8! Made about 350 QSOs. Got some DX, too. 30 meters is an interesting band and I'm glad I stuck it out there as I'd never really operated on the band before. I'm kidding - I am in no way an expert. I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn.
"FT8 is kind of addicting but it's fun. Even got an ATNO on 30 - Reunion Island my 2nd best DX ever. I think I'm running about 50 W to a trap dipole at about 25-30."
On March 7 NN4X wrote:
"FT8 is a fantastic tool for monitoring prop. It allowed me to document a fascinating but short 30 minute opening to Africa from Florida, resulting in RF being expended from my side, but no QSOs. My antenna: JK Antennas JK-WARC 121730 (3 elements on 17M) at 113 feet.
"17M 2019-Mar-07
EA9AK 1502Z
5X2S 1516Z
Z81D 1530Z"
On March 6, Steve wrote:
"Due to dreadful conditions, I seriously did not want to suffer through the ARRL DX contest last week, but did want to play on the radio. I've only been on 12M since December 2018, so have been making a point to check it frequently.
"Just to show that there is propagation, here's a selection of what I've worked from Florida recently:
"VK3BDX February 28
LU, PY, YV, T31EU, YN, FY, EA8/DL9XJ, CE, CX, EA7DT, HK, HD8M (HC8) March 2, 3 CE0YHO March 3, T31EU March 2, 3 EA8AXT, EA8AKN, EA9ACD March 5
"So, the moral of the story is, 'Never Give Up Hope.'"
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.
More good information and tutorials on propagation are at
http://k9la.us/.
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for February 28 through March 6, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 14, and 17, with a mean of 4.4. 10.7 cm flux was 70.1, 69.9, 69.4, 69.5, 70.9, 72, and 72.5, with a mean of 70.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 24, 12, 6, 7, 5, and 8, with a mean of 12.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 17, 18, 9, 6, 7, 4, and 7, with a mean of 9.7.
• All propagation reports can be found at:
http://www.southgatearc.org/propagation
