After six days with no visible sunspots, a new one appeared on
Wednesday, August, 1, with a daily sunspot number of 11. As there was
also only one day with a sunspot (also 11) in the previous week, average
daily sunspot number for this week was unchanged at 1.6. The new
sunspot is small and was given the number AR2717 on Thursday, when the
sunspot number again was 11.
Average daily solar flux was down from 68.4 to 68.
Average daily planetary A index decreased from 8.1 to 5, while average
daily mid-latitude A index went from 8 to 5.1.
According to an August 2 forecast prepared by the
US Air Force, predicted solar flux is expected to be 70 on August 3, 72
on August 4 to 9, 71 on August 10, 70 on August 11 to 17, 68 on August
18 to 20, 66 on August 21 to 23, 68 on August 24 through September 6, 70
on September 7 to 13, and 68 on September 14 to 16.
Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 3, 10 on
August 4 and 5, 6 on August 6, 8 on August 7 and 8, 5 on August 9 to
11, 8 on August 12 and 13, 5 on August 14 and 15, then 8 and 12 on
August 16 and 17, 5 on August 18 and 19, 20 and 12 on August 20 and 21, 5
on August 22 through September 1, then 10 and 8 on September 2 and 3, 5
on September 4 and 7, 8 on September 8 and 9, 5 on September 10 and 11,
8 and 12 on September 12 and 13, 5 on September 14 and 15 and 20 on
September 16.
Reader Max White, M0VNG of Worcester, England sent
this about experiments with ionospheric sounding over 50 years ago, both
below and above the ionosphere: https://bit.ly/2LNGrvJ
Jeff, N8II wrote:
"There has been sporadic E to somewhere every day on
10M in the past week, but today, August 2nd, was absolutely amazing. It
all started working MW0EDX, Wales on 15M CW via sporadic E with a good
signal at 1815Z. Then I called CQ on 15 CW and DL4KCA answered. He was
589 on 15 CW with a 3 element StepIR; we tried 12M and he was 549 (my
antenna 2 el vs 5 el Yagi on 15 and 10), and 549 on 10 CW.
I worked Fred F5NBX, a 10 CW regular just after Joe
and tried more CQ's on 10 and 15 to no avail. Then, the big surprise
happened at 1905Z when I heard Vlad, R2KW 549 on 10 CW in Kaliningrad in
a QSO; one try and I was in his log. Then the following stations
answered my CW CQ's: UA3EDQ, RZ3AK, and RQ3A Moscow, RU2K Kaliningrad,
and UX7IB and UX2VA in Ukraine all S 2-3.
Then still in 1900Z hour, I had a few western EU
stations call on CW from Germany, France, PA0KBN Netherlands (new DXCC
band slot since 1/17) and ON4BCN Belgium (new slot). I then found OH0Z
Aland Is. who was 549 (new slot)! This was followed by 9A2018CRO
Croatia, and more from Italy, Germany, France and England.
The 2000Z hour was relatively quiet with Hristo
LZ2HR found at 2010Z and Q5 copy for the next 2 hours! Also on 10 CW I
worked one each Spain, Italy, and England in the hour. I was about to
QRT for dinner at 2100Z when a few new stations appeared. On SSB Ian
MM0TFU called in very weak followed by CW QSO's with OH0Z now 559,
Germany, Spain, and Robert S50R Slovenia. Then at 2122-2151Z conditions
markedly improved and on SSB I ran 30 European stations all in Germany,
England, Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, and Portugal.
The last few minutes were spent chasing DX cluster
spots and spotting some stations of my own on CW working ZB2FK Gibraltar
(new slot), KL7SB/VP9 Bermuda (new slot), LZ3ZZ, TA1D Istanbul, Turkey
(new slot), and MU0FAL Guernsey at 2205Z. After a dinner break at 2246Z,
the band seemed to have closed to EU, but VY2CAK on Prince Edward
Island was S9+.
In my 47 plus years of operating I had never worked
Russia, Kaliningrad, Ukraine, Aland Is., or Turkey on 10M via sporadic E
during the summer months; it was an incredible opening!" (When Jeff
says "new slot" it refers to the first time working a DXCC country on a
particular band, as he explained above.)
Jon Jones, N0JK in Lawrence, Kansas sent this on
August 2: "Usually the sporadic E season winds down in August. But so
far it has been going strong. A big E opening on 6 meters August 1 from
Japan to the southeast states, and N0LL and I had CT1HZE into Kansas
August 1. On August 2 Europe was in for hours as far west as the
Mississippi River. Why the good conditions? It has also been a great
season for NLC (noctilucent clouds). They form at 85 km altitude. The
E-layer is 90 - 160 km high. Perhaps the same upper atmosphere
conditions keeping NLC going strong may be influencing sporadic E. See
Spaceweather.com."
Note that Spaceweather.com has a gallery of images devoted to NLC:
http://spaceweathergallery.com/nlc_gallery.html
Frantisek Janda, OK1HH sent the following from Ondrejov in the Czech Republic. See his bio on QRZ.com for more about him.
"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 3 to 29, 2018.
Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on August 5, 10 and 11, 15, 23-24
Quiet to unsettled on August 14, 16, 22
Quiet to active on August 3 and 4, 6 to 9, 12, 25 to
29 Unsettled to active on August 12, 17 to 19, 21 Active to disturbed on
August (13,) 20
Solar wind will intensify on August (16 to 19,) 20 to 22, 28 to 30
Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Reliability of predictions remains low."
Dr. Tamitha Skov sent this, followed by her video for this week:
"Dear Tad,
Last week I mentioned traveling was always an
adventure and this trip has been no exception. After being unable to
connect to the television in my hotel room (I tried with two separate
computers), I settled for shooting my forecast using my mobile phone
camera in a way it was never intended. The result has been an
unconventional video to say the least. I almost didn't post it, as it's
not up to my usual standards, but I figured you would forgive the
imperfections in favor of the content.
Additionally, I apologize for getting this
newsletter out to you a little late this week. Spotty internet
connection while on the road has prevented me from sending it out until
today. However, being mobile in Europe this week has given me the chance
to reflect on how deeply entrenched space exploration is in our global
culture. In fact, while in Amsterdam I came across an art installation
showing an astronaut impossibly balancing between a chair and a flower
pot (see https://bit.ly/2LRDIl2).
The Joseph Klibansky installation, called "Self-Portrait of a Dreamer,"
succinctly captures our culture's dreamy fascination with space and its
intersection with objects in our more ordinary lives.
As I stared up at this massive structure, the
symbolism began to sink in. I realized we are a lot like that dreamy
astronaut, striving to blend our understanding of space with its impacts
on our everyday world. I also realized that just like the astronaut, we
too will one day soon strike a perfect balance.
This week's forecast brings us an Earth-directed
stealthy solar storm followed by a small pocket of fast wind that will
likely have little effect, but could bring subtle aurora to high
latitudes. Even though GPS users might experience glitchy reception near
aurora, users at low latitudes should enjoy better than normal
reception due to the light impact of the storm. The Sun also has two
bright regions rotating into Earth-view this week that should help keep
amateur radio propagation near marginal levels, so there is some good
news for everyone.
Cheers, Tamitha"
TNX Southgate
