K7RA Solar Report

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: The average daily sunspot number for December 1-7 was 40.9, up 10 points from the previous 7 days. Solar flux has hardly changed, moving from 82.6 to 82.2. The average daily planetary A index dropped from 13.6 to 4.9, and the average mid-latitude A index dipped from 10.3 to 3.4.The latest prediction from NOAA and the US Air Force shows solar flux at 75 on December 8-10; 70 on December 11-13; 75 on December 14-15; 78 on December 16-18; 82 on December 19-20; 86 on December 21-27; 84 on December 28-31; 82 on January 1; 80 on January 2-3; 78 on January 4-8; 80 on January 9, and 82 on January 10-15.

Their latest projection for Planetary A Index is 20 on December 8-9; 18, 12, and 8 on December 10-12; 5 on December 13-17; 8, 12, 16, and 22 on December 18-21; 30, 12, 10, and 8 on December 22-25; 5 on December 26-31; 8, 5, 12, and 15 on January 1-4; 20, 18, and 12 on January 5-7, and 5 on January 8-13.

A summary of the 3-month moving average of observed daily sunspot numbers, from January through November 2016: 55.4, 53.5, 49, 45.3, 43.1, 35.4, 33, 33.5, 40, 39, and 29.6. Monthly average daily sunspot numbers for November were 22.4. This is down from 50.4, 37.4, and 29.1 for August through October. The downward trend in activity is obvious and undeniable.

Sunspot numbers for December 1 through 7 were 49, 59, 62, 37, 37, 24, and 18, with a mean of 40.9. 10.7 cm flux was 84.5, 84.4, 84.7, 82.4, 82.7, 79.8, and 77.2, with a mean of 82.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 3, 2, 4, 7, and 11, with a mean of 4.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 6, and 9, with a mean of 3.4. (Via ARRL)